LCS Hockey - Chasing History

Chasing History
by Michael Dell, editor-in-chief

The talk has already started. The 1998-99 NHL season is barely underway, yet many experts are predicting that this could be a very special year. A year to remember. The year that Paul Laus breaks Roger Maris' 1961 mark for goals in a single season.

"I think he's going to do it," says MIT professor and hockey fan Arthur Jessup. "I'm quite confident it will happen."

Jessup should know. He's spent the past four months studying the probabilities of the rugged Florida Panther defenseman actually beating Maris' 37-year-old record of zero goals.

Laus/Maris

"The idea of Laus surpassing Maris was once considered folly, but the moment is right for the record to fall," assures Jessup. "It's only a matter of time."

The professor has several theories to support his claim.

"First of all, as in 1961 when Maris established the benchmark, 1998-99 is an expansion year," explains Jessup. "The league-wide dilution of talent increases Laus' chances of scoring by 6.7%."

That number may not seem like much, but Laus will take all the help he can get. He's failed to register a goal in each of the past two seasons, appearing in 154 games over that time. It took Maris no games to reach that same goal total back in '61.

Expansion isn't the only thing in Laus' favor. There's also the juiced-puck theory. The professor believes that a subtle change in the production of pucks may lead to Laus lighting the lamp.

"Many believe that the pucks are wound tighter now then when Maris didn't play, making them more lively. The result is a faster shot by as many as four or five miles per hour. The puck also takes more unpredictable bounces, increasing the likelihood of a deflection or otherwise uncommon goal," reports Jessup.

When one considers that the league promises to place a greater emphasis on offense this season, the combination of expansion and juiced pucks could be all the more lethal. But exactly what are the odds of Laus beating Maris?

"I'd say the odds of Laus scoring a goal are 146 to 1," ventures Professor Jessup. "Those are, by far, the best odds of his career."

The good doctor carried his odds making a bit further to try and predict exactly which opposing team will be victimized by the fateful goal. And if things go according to the numbers, it might very well be the men with lightning bolts on their pants.

After weighing such factors as the new divisional alignments and the extra intensity of the Sunshine State rivalry, Professor Jessup believes the odds of the goal coming against the Tampa Bay Lightning are 3 to 1. Carolina is second at 6 to 1. The long shot? The Dallas Stars at 250,000 to 1. And just between you and me, he's got the Indianapolis Colts at only +11 at San Francisco this Sunday. You might want to get a piece of that action while you can. And don't sweat it, the prof keeps everything on flash paper in case he hears the fuzz coming up the stairs. Good man that Jessup.

Anticipation of Laus' titanic feat is not being lost on the fans of South Florida. Thousands have been showing up for practices and pre-game skates in hopes of seeing their hero work his shot. The spirits of those in attendance are extremely high, only surpassed by their expectations.

"He's gonna score three this year!" boasts season-ticket holder Elaine Braddock. "You heard it here first!"

It seems everyone has a prediction. While not all are as bawdy as Ms. Braddock's, most believe this will be the year Maris' record falls. But some people aren't getting caught up in the hype.

"Who cares about goals?" snarls Panther fan Michael Woodman. "I know one thing for sure. Laus could kick Maris' ass. And that's the bottom line."

Sadly, Laus won't be allowed to punch the puck into the net. However, if the magical moment does arrive when the blueliner makes the scoresheet, that once-in-a-lifetime piece of vulcanized rubber will be in hot demand. The Hall of Fame has put in a claim for the souvenir, but several outside parties have already offered as much as $22.50 for the valuable prize.

As is usually the case, stay tuned to the pages of LCS Hockey for updates on this developing story. We'll be with Laus the entire way as he chases history. We'll also be gambling with Jessup the whole way as long as he doesn't punk out on that 49ers bet. Remember, kids... gambling isn't just illegal, it's also fun!